The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis: When Abundant AI Turns Bearish

2026-02-26 · Industry Analysis

Citrini Research presents a future “macro memo” from June 2028 describing a systemic crisis driven by abundant machine intelligence. The scenario argues that AI-driven productivity gains can be economically bearish if they reduce labour income faster than institutions can adapt. As white-collar displacement accelerates, consumer spending weakens despite rising “Ghost GDP” (output that does not circulate through households). The shock propagates from software disruption into intermediation, then into credit markets—especially private credit held via insurer balance sheets—and potentially into prime mortgages as income assumptions underlying household credit are structurally impaired.